The numbers don’t lie—and right now, they’re painting a troubling picture behind the Montreal Canadiens bench. Martin St-Louis stands, arms crossed and eyes sharp, as the chaos of another blown lead swirls around him. The scoreboard glows with disappointment, the crowd’s anxious murmurs echoing through the arena. It’s a scene that’s become all too familiar for the Habs, and suddenly, the cracks in their armor are impossible to ignore.

Early in the season, Montreal looked like a team reborn. Every shift was crisp, every pass purposeful, and the defense seemed impenetrable. Jakub Dobes was making highlight-reel saves, the blue line was holding firm, and the Canadiens were climbing the standings with swagger. But in the blink of an eye, that confidence has vanished. Now, the numbers at five-on-five are sounding alarms that no one can afford to ignore.

Ranked 25th out of 32 in expected goals against at even strength, the Canadiens have slipped from solid to shaky, and the consequences are piling up. The once-reliable man-to-man system, a signature of St-Louis’ coaching philosophy, is suddenly under scrutiny. Opponents have found ways to exploit the gaps, and Montreal’s defensive structure is unraveling just as the schedule intensifies. The coach’s unwavering trust in his system is generating heated debate, both inside the locker room and across the city.

The problem is simple but devastating: games are won and lost at five-on-five. There are no shortcuts, no miracles waiting in the wings. When the Canadiens falter at even strength, their margin for error disappears—and so do their playoff hopes.

The goaltending numbers add another layer of concern. Dobes, once the early-season hero, has seen his stats slip to a 3.15 goals-against average and a .887 save percentage through 17 games. Samuel Montembeault, with a 3.65 average and an .857 save percentage in 15 games, has struggled to provide stability. Jacob Fowler, the rookie sensation, has shown flashes of promise but remains untested with only two games under his belt. If the goalies don’t deliver clutch saves when it matters most, the defensive woes only deepen.

Saturday night in New York was a microcosm of the Canadiens’ season: a blistering start, a 3-0 lead, and then a slow, painful unraveling as the Rangers clawed back and snatched victory in overtime. Fowler stopped 21 shots, and Montreal’s road record—an impressive 6-2-2 over the last ten games—offers a glimmer of hope. But the underlying issues at five-on-five remain, threatening to sink the season before it’s truly begun.

The urgency is real. The Canadiens cannot afford to wait for luck to turn. If Martin St-Louis can’t find a fix for his struggling system, the playoffs will become a distant dream. The good news? There’s still time to right the ship. But patience is running thin, and the next few weeks will reveal whether Montreal has the answers—or if this one stat will become the story of their downfall.

Photo of Martin St-Louis behind the Canadiens bench

Photo credit: Screenshot

The Canadiens are no longer solid at five-on-five, and it shows in the numbers.

Early in the season, everything was running smoothly for the Habs. Key players were producing, the defense was solid, and Jakub Dobes was playing above his head.

That quickly turned the Canadiens into an effective defensive team. But today, Montreal ranks 25th out of 32 in expected goals against at five-on-five.

At even strength, this shows that there are flaws in the Canadiens’ game.

Martin St-Louis Must Fix the Problem

The problem is that things have been going poorly for several weeks now. When you are near the bottom of the standings at five-on-five, you cannot wait for a miracle. That is where games are decided, and there is no margin for error.

Ultimately, Martin St-Louis’ well-known man-to-man system is generating a lot of discussion right now. The coach continues to trust his system, without making any major changes. When it does not work, the team’s five-on-five performance suffers.

The Canadiens must find a way to correct this, because it is not sustainable in the long term.

In goal, the numbers for the goaltenders also carry significant weight. Dobes has played 17 games, with a 3.15 goals-against average and a .887 save percentage. He has faced 443 shots and allowed 50 goals so far.

Samuel Montembeault has 15 games, a 3.65 average and an .857 save percentage, with 49 goals allowed on 343 shots. Jacob Fowler has played 2 games, with a 3.42 average and a .894 save percentage, but the sample size is small.

If the goalies do not make the big saves at the right moments, it does not help.

Saturday in New York, the Canadiens lost 5-4 in overtime after blowing a 3-0 lead. Jacob Fowler stopped 21 shots, and Montreal is 6-2-2 on the road over its last ten games. That shows there are positives, even if the even-strength defense is concerning.

The Canadiens will not be able to make the playoffs if they remain this poor at five-on-five.

The good news is that it is still early in the season to get back on track. But results are needed, and quickly, because patience has its limits.