There’s a moment in every season when the numbers stop whispering and start shouting. For the Toronto Maple Leafs, that moment arrived not with a bang, but with an eerie, stubborn silence around the player least expected to go quiet. You’ve seen the box scores. You’ve seen the headline totals. On their face, they don’t look catastrophic. But if you’ve watched closely—really watched—you know something is off with Auston Matthews, and it’s not the kind of “off” that a lucky bounce or a hot week casually fixes.

What’s happening here isn’t just a cold patch. It’s a pattern. It’s the kind of pattern that slides past casual conversation and lodges itself in the back of your mind during commercial breaks—why doesn’t this feel like him? He still has goals, he still has moments, he still skates like a gravity well that pulls defenders into places they don’t want to be. And yet, the game isn’t bending to him the way it used to. The questions begin to stack: is this usage, system, health, chemistry—or something more subtle, more systemic, slipping beneath the surface?

If you’re tempted to pin it on last season’s nagging health concerns, you’re not alone. Except this year was supposed to be the reset, the clean slate, the “full tank” version of 34. The opening week teased the comeback arc we all expected: pucks funneled to dangerous ice, quick releases finding corners, that familiar swagger humming through the top line. Then, gradually, the edges frayed. The shot selection narrowed. The game-breaking shifts felt fewer, farther between, and far less inevitable.

There’s a stat—one you won’t believe at first—that reframes everything you think you know about his recent stretch at five-on-five. It won’t show up in the highlight packs or the top-line summaries. It lurks in the rate data, in the context that separates “fine” from “alarming.” When you see where Matthews’ production sits among his peers over a very specific window, your stomach will drop—not because it’s a career verdict, but because it challenges the story we’ve been telling about who he is right now.

Of course, nothing in Toronto happens in a vacuum. The roster has been in flux. Trusted partners have been absent, shuffled, reunited. A new bench boss has installed a more rigid, defensively honest structure—one that might be tightening the screws on the very creative chaos Matthews weaponized under a looser system. The workload has crept up. The shooting luck has crept down. You can draw a clean line through any one of those threads and make a case. But the truth usually hides where those lines intersect.

This isn’t about panic. It’s about clarity. It’s about separating noise from signal, cold streak from concern, and asking the uncomfortable question that championship teams don’t wait to answer: what, exactly, is dragging at 5v5—and how quickly can it be fixed? Because if you look past the surface pace and listen to what the deeper numbers and on-ice patterns are actually saying, you may not like the answer. But you’ll want to see it.

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) against the Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome

Photo credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

Auston Matthews’ scoring struggles date back to last season, and one alarming statistic has everyone wondering, now more than ever, what’s going on?

Upon first glance, Auston Matthews’ 5 goals through 11 games doesn’t appear to be that bad, as it still puts him on a 45-goal pace this season. However, when we dig a little bit deeper, the reality is far more alarming than many may have suspected.

Matthews had significant issues with his health last season, which isn’t news to anyone. However, with the Leafs’ captain coming into this season as healthy as he’s ever been, many expected him to pop off offensively.

Auston Matthews’ Last 6 Games Are Concerning

Through his first 5 games, Matthews delivered, contributing 4 goals and 5 points, which had many believing that he was back to his former glory. However, in the 6 games that have followed, Matthews has produced only 1 goal and 2 assists and hasn’t taken over the game like he can.

Yes, the Leafs are still adjusting to life without Mitch Marner, and yes the Leafs are without the services of William Nylander, who was recently reunited with Matthews on the top line, but even with these issues, your $13.25M forward needs to produce.

A Haunting Statistic for #34

On Thursday, Leafs reporter Michael Distefano shared a haunting Auston Matthews statistic that is really quite jarring when you stop and think about it. Since February 1st, 2025, Matthews is 250th in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes at 5v5, tallying just six goals at 5v5 over that span.

To put that into perspective, per StatMuse, Matthews has more 5v5 goals than any player in the NHL since his draft year. More than Alex Ovechkin, more than Leon Draisaitl, more than Nathan MacKinnon.

Craig Berube’s System Could Be Hurting Matthews’ Offensive Output

There’s something to Matthews’ meteoric fall on offense, and it might even have something to do with the new, more rigid system implemented by Craig Berube since taking over for Sheldon Keefe in Toronto.

Berube does really push a defense-first game, which doesn’t really allow for the same type of high-octane offensive system that Matthews thrived in under Keefe. Does that mean that this is the new norm for Matthews? I certainly hope not, and I’m willing to bet that I’m not alone.

Is a Low Shooting Percentage and High ATOI the Issue?

For Matthews, it’s simple. He needs to get into better scoring areas, and his teammates need to get him the puck. There aren’t many who can shoot the puck like he can, but for one reason or another, he simply doesn’t seem to be getting quality shots off at anywhere near the same level as he used to.

Matthews’ shooting percentage this season (10.9%) is also the lowest of his career thus far. His 21:59 ATOI this season is also the highest of his career, so perhaps playing a few less shifts will keep him fresher and more lethal on the scoresheet.

Whatever the root cause of Matthews’ 5v5 scoring issues, the Leafs need to get a handle on it, and quick, because if your top player isn’t playing like your top player, you’re certainly going to have problems.