Doc Rivers believes the Bucks can beat the Pacers despite losing the first two games, but history suggests he won’t.

The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves down 2-0 in their first-round series against the Indiana Pacers following a 123-115 loss in Game 2 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday.

The Bucks have looked outmatched for much of this series, but head coach Doc Rivers stated postgame that he is confident about their chances to advance.

“We have time, we have 48 hours,” Rivers said about adjustments he might make. “I’m not gonna tell you what I’m doing right now, because I don’t know. But we’ll figure it out. I’m very confident about this series. Very.”

You have to have belief if you’re a head coach in this situation, but history certainly isn’t in Rivers’ favor. Only 28 teams in NBA history have gone down 2-0 but still won a best-of-seven playoff series.

As if that isn’t bad enough, Rivers hasn’t coached any of those teams. He has a 0-6 record after falling down 2-0 in his coaching career.

The most recent instance where Rivers’ team was down 2-0 prior to this was when his Philadelphia 76ers faced that deficit against the Miami Heat in the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals. The 76ers managed to tie the series at 2-2 but then went on to lose in six.

With the way this series has gone thus far, it might be a little bit surprising if it goes six. Apart from a brief stretch in the fourth quarter of Game 2, where they went on a 13-0 run, the Bucks have looked no match for the Pacers. The reason for that is defense.

The Pacers have shot 50.3% from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc in this series. They have ripped apart this Bucks defense time and time again, and it’s hard to see things changing in that regard.

The Bucks’ struggles on defense have led to a couple of excellent performances from Giannis Antetokounmpo going to waste.

Antetokounmpo has averaged 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game against the Pacers while shooting 65.1% from the field and still finds himself down 2-0. That shouldn’t even be possible, but it is.

The Bucks did get a big boost with Damian Lillard making his long-awaited return from deep vein thrombosis in Game 2, but he struggled.

Lillard had just 14 points (4-13 FG), three rebounds, and seven assists in the loss, and that was somewhat expected. It is going to take him some time to get going, but even if that happens in Game 3, he’s not going to help them from a defensive standpoint.

Rivers is going to need to make some incredible adjustments on that end of the floor to turn this series around. Considering his history, would you be confident he’d pull that off? Probably not.

The Bucks, though, did come back from a 2-0 deficit not too long ago. They had lost the first two games to the Phoenix Suns in the 2021 NBA Finals but stormed back to win the series in six. A lot of the players from that team are no longer there, though, and neither is head coach Mike Budenholzer.

You should never completely write off a team that has Antetokounmpo, but it’s hard to be optimistic about the Bucks right now. Game 3 will be played at Fiserv Forum on Friday at 8 PM ET, and if the Pacers win that one too, then it’s all over.