The Indiana Fever are walking into the lion’s den as they prepare to face the Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals, and if there’s one thing we know, it’s that this matchup is far more intriguing than most people realize.

The Aces are the reigning champions, they’ve got A’ja Wilson playing at an MVP level, and they thrive in big moments. But the Fever, riding the high of eliminating the Atlanta Dream, suddenly look like a team with nothing to lose.

That freedom, paired with the raw talent of Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, and the emerging confidence of role players like Lexie Hull and Kelsey Mitchell, makes this a fascinating series that could flip the narrative of the postseason.

When you look at the Aces on film, the first thing that jumps out is their spacing. They know how to open the floor for Wilson to go to work in the post, and when double teams come, she kicks it out to shooters like Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum.

Defensively, they switch often and rely on their length to close down passing lanes. But what stood out in Game 3 against the Storm is that when Seattle was aggressive in transition, the Aces sometimes struggled to match up quickly. This is exactly where the Fever need to attack—by speeding the game up, forcing mismatches in transition, and letting Clark create with tempo.

Indiana’s win over Atlanta gave us a glimpse of their resilience, especially late in games. The Fever were down in stretches but clawed back thanks to timely defensive plays from Hull and steady interior dominance from Boston.

When Clark wasn’t hitting shots, she still controlled the game with her playmaking. The Fever showed that when their bench contributes and their energy stays high, they’re capable of surprising anyone. Film from that series makes it clear that the Fever thrive when they aren’t relying on Clark to score 30 every night but instead use her gravity to get open looks for teammates. Against Las Vegas, this balanced approach will be absolutely necessary.

One major key to this series is Aliyah Boston’s ability to hold her own against Wilson. Boston has been spectacular as a rebounder and rim protector, but Wilson is the ultimate test. On tape, Boston’s best moments against Atlanta came when she stayed disciplined, went straight up, and forced tough shots.

Against Wilson, fouls could become a problem quickly, so Boston has to maintain composure. If she can neutralize Wilson even slightly, Indiana’s chances rise dramatically. If she gets into foul trouble early, the Fever will be scrambling to find answers.

Another piece of the puzzle is Kelsey Mitchell. Her scoring ability has been overlooked with all the Clark hype, but she has consistently delivered big buckets when the Fever need them.

Watching the film, Mitchell’s ability to beat her defender off the dribble and finish at the rim is exactly the kind of pressure that can hurt Las Vegas. The Aces often load up defensively on stars, and Clark will be the focus. That means Mitchell’s one-on-one opportunities will be there. If she can put up 18–20 points per game in this series, the Fever’s offense suddenly becomes much harder to stop.

Then there’s Lexie Hull, who has become something of a revelation for Indiana. Her clutch steal against Atlanta was the defining play of the series, and her confidence on both ends of the floor has skyrocketed.

On film, her defensive instincts stand out—she reads passing lanes well and isn’t afraid to be physical. Against a guard-heavy team like Las Vegas, Hull’s defense will be crucial in slowing down Plum and Young. If she can keep them from getting easy buckets in transition and make them work harder for points, the Fever’s defense will have a fighting chance.

From the Aces’ perspective, one thing that must concern them is depth. Their starting lineup is elite, but when they go to the bench, there is a noticeable drop-off. The Fever, meanwhile, have gotten surprising contributions from players like NaLyssa Smith and even bench energy from veterans

. On film, Indiana doesn’t have the same raw talent as Las Vegas, but they use their depth to stay fresh and aggressive. If the Fever can push the pace and force the Aces’ starters to log heavy minutes, fatigue could play a role as the series drags on.

Coaching adjustments will also be vital. Becky Hammon is one of the best in the game and has proven she knows how to guide her team under pressure. But Stephanie White deserves credit too—her adjustments against Atlanta worked beautifully, especially the decision to let Clark operate more off the ball at times to confuse the defense.

On film, you can see how Clark’s off-ball movement opened up space for Mitchell and Boston to attack. Using Clark in similar ways against the Aces could create chaos and force Hammon to make tough decisions on defensive assignments.

So what are my predictions? On paper, the Aces are the heavy favorites. They have the experience, the best player in the series in Wilson, and the home-court advantage. I think Las Vegas will take Game 1, largely because Indiana will still be adjusting to the higher level of competition.

But I don’t see this being a sweep. The Fever’s confidence is growing by the day, and Clark’s ability to rise to the moment can’t be underestimated. I believe Indiana will steal a game in Vegas and then take at least one on their home floor, pushing the series to four or even five games.

Ultimately, I still lean toward the Aces advancing, but the Fever are going to shock a lot of people by how competitive they are. My prediction is Aces in four, but every game will be close, and Indiana will leave this series with their heads held high.

For such a young team, making it this far is already an achievement, but the film breakdown shows that with a few key adjustments—slowing Wilson, riding Mitchell’s scoring, and playing at a faster pace—they could absolutely pull off an upset. If Clark has one of those legendary shooting nights we’ve already seen from her in college and flashes of this season, all bets are off.

This series is going to be a battle of superstars, but it’s also going to be about who embraces the moment. The Aces have the pedigree, but the Fever have the hunger. Film tells us Indiana has a blueprint, but execution is everything.

Whatever happens, this matchup feels like the beginning of a new rivalry in the WNBA, and it could be the series that announces the Fever as the next true powerhouse in women’s basketball.